Yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed up by 66.91 points to close at 4,756.58. The index saw a broad based recovery, with miners, oils and financials showing strength. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 70.89 points (or 0.76%) to end at 9,350.05. Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 19.98 points (or 1.01%) to close at 1,989.22. The S and P 500 index was up 10.91 points (or 1.09%) to finish at 1,007.37. US stock increased for the 3rd consecutive session, financial stocks showed gains after US manufacturing data and a rebound in Chinese stocks improved risk appetite.
In July the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that government net borrowing hit a record £8bn following a slump in tax receipts. Receipts are shrinking faster than the Treasury had predicted. Alistair Buchanan, chief executive of Ofgem, the energy regulator, has had a meeting with some of Britain’s largest energy companies after it emerged they were forcing as many as 250,000 small businesses to pay for their energy up to seven months in advance. There is increased concern that this could put these companies into difficulties. Yesterday, the government cut the price of its £5bn credit insurance guarantee scheme to help protect suppliers from the collapse of their customers. The scheme lets suppliers buy six months of government-backed insurance to either restore cover to its original level or to double the amount they can obtain from the private sector. British businesses are more confident about their trading than they have been for 13 months, According the Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Business Barometer, 30 per cent of businesses questioned in July expected their business activity to rise over the next year. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said yesterday, gross mortgage lending rose 26 per cent in July on the previous month but remains 36 per cent down on 2008. The Obama administration said yesterday, the US’s ‘cash for clunkers’ scheme will end on Monday. The government said the scheme was “an overwhelming success”, the program was called to a halt to make sure Congress does not exceed the allocated $3bn for the project. A stabilising US financial sector has allowed Barack Obama to trim 2009 budget deficit projections. Officials said, the White House budget office will lower its deficit forecast next week for the current fiscal year to $1.58 trillion (£95bn) from $1.84 trillion after removing $250bn set aside for bank bailouts. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (which is the world’s largest bank by market value), posted a 3 per cent rise in net profit in the first half from the last year.
Cable is firmer from earlier trade; presently up at 1.6491 but still currently below its open. Technical supports 1.6420, 1.6400 and 1.6375, resistances 1.6495/00 and 1.6515/25.EUR/USD has ticked higher in early trade, presently at 1.4250. The low so far has been 93.49 in USD/JPY and it is certainly unusual to say that USD/JPY is leading the way but that has been the case today. It is currently climbing back up to the 94.00 mark.
This morning, Gold is at, 941.00 USD, Copper 273.35 USX and Brent Crude 73.16 USD.
Due for release today there are the USD existing home sales and Eur-Zone Purchasing Managers Index.
Showing posts with label greg secker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label greg secker. Show all posts
Friday, 21 August 2009
Thursday, 20 August 2009
Morning Call by Greg Secker
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed up by 3.89 points (or 0.1%) points to close at 4,689.67. Oil producers were amongst the highest risers as there was increased demand from the US causing firmer crude prices. However, the banks fell, after HSBC traded ex-dividend. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 70.48 points at 9279.16. Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed up at 1,969.24. The S and P 500 index was up 9.58 points to close up at 996.46. US stocks improved as investors reacted to firmer oil prices and investors started to shrug off overseas weakness. Healthcare stocks were among the better performers.
There has been concern among city economists about the weakness of the UK economy after it emerged that the Bank of England governor Mervyn King and two colleagues had pushed to extend quantitative easing (QE) by £75bn earlier this month, rather than the £50bn that was voted in. Detailed forecasts published by the BOE showed that gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 0.2 per cent between July and September, marking the first economic expansion since the first three months of last year. These growth figures have been extrapolated by economists from data published by the Bank in the wake of last week’s Inflation Report. According the independent The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also said yesterday that the world’s 30 most advanced economies stopped contracting in the second quarter of the year, having endured the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. According to research out yesterday by UBS, the devaluation of the Sterling has caused London to drop 19 places in a ranking of the world’s most expensive cities. London now ranks 21st for living costs and its international wage level comparison. Standard & Poor’s has reported that the number of companies defaulting on their debts has risen to record levels this year.
Investment returns for risky corporate debt has rocketed since January. S&P said the amount of debt that has defaulted this year, already exceeds that of all the defaults in 2008. Research shows, that the world’s big investment institutions are dumping cash and bonds and scooping up equities. According to a poll, investor optimism about the global economy has risen to a six-year high and stock market sentiment is at its most bullish for two years. According to the Merrill Lynch fund manager’s survey for August, 75% of respondents believe the world economy will strengthen in the coming 12 months – the highest reading since November 2003. Hurricane Bill is the first of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season and has already hit Category 4 status. Due to this Insurers are concerned they will have another season of billion pound losses. The Obama administration said it will wind down its popular “cash for clunkers” incentive program so as soon as early September. Yesterday, the Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood reassured auto dealers that they would be reimbursed for discounts given under the program.
Cable is ticking higher in early European trade, supported by a generally healthy risk appetite. It is at 1.6575 at writing. Technical resistance now at 1.6590/00. EUR/USD trading is off to a far slower start this morning, the pairing presently sitting at 1.4238. Asian stocks did ok overnight, Chinese stocks rebounding, and looks to increase risk appetite. The USD/JPY is up at 94.35 from a North American close Wednesday around 94.05, while EUR/JPY is up at 134.30 from around 133.80.
This morning, Gold is at, 946.30 USD, Copper 278.60 USX and Brent Crude 74.64 USD Yesterday Crude oil prices surged after the government’s weekly inventory report revealed a surprise decline in stockpiles. Gold demand fell to its lowest level in six years in the second quarter, the World Gold Council said yesterday, as the global downturn hit jewellery consumption and electronics producers’ buying demand. Demand worldwide fell nine per cent to it’s the lowest level since the first quarter of 2003. Just as the price of the commodity slides to a seven-year low, a hedge fund has made a large bet that natural gas prices will triple by winter.
Due for release today there are the GBP retail sales and CHF ZEW Survey.
There has been concern among city economists about the weakness of the UK economy after it emerged that the Bank of England governor Mervyn King and two colleagues had pushed to extend quantitative easing (QE) by £75bn earlier this month, rather than the £50bn that was voted in. Detailed forecasts published by the BOE showed that gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 0.2 per cent between July and September, marking the first economic expansion since the first three months of last year. These growth figures have been extrapolated by economists from data published by the Bank in the wake of last week’s Inflation Report. According the independent The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also said yesterday that the world’s 30 most advanced economies stopped contracting in the second quarter of the year, having endured the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. According to research out yesterday by UBS, the devaluation of the Sterling has caused London to drop 19 places in a ranking of the world’s most expensive cities. London now ranks 21st for living costs and its international wage level comparison. Standard & Poor’s has reported that the number of companies defaulting on their debts has risen to record levels this year.
Investment returns for risky corporate debt has rocketed since January. S&P said the amount of debt that has defaulted this year, already exceeds that of all the defaults in 2008. Research shows, that the world’s big investment institutions are dumping cash and bonds and scooping up equities. According to a poll, investor optimism about the global economy has risen to a six-year high and stock market sentiment is at its most bullish for two years. According to the Merrill Lynch fund manager’s survey for August, 75% of respondents believe the world economy will strengthen in the coming 12 months – the highest reading since November 2003. Hurricane Bill is the first of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season and has already hit Category 4 status. Due to this Insurers are concerned they will have another season of billion pound losses. The Obama administration said it will wind down its popular “cash for clunkers” incentive program so as soon as early September. Yesterday, the Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood reassured auto dealers that they would be reimbursed for discounts given under the program.
Cable is ticking higher in early European trade, supported by a generally healthy risk appetite. It is at 1.6575 at writing. Technical resistance now at 1.6590/00. EUR/USD trading is off to a far slower start this morning, the pairing presently sitting at 1.4238. Asian stocks did ok overnight, Chinese stocks rebounding, and looks to increase risk appetite. The USD/JPY is up at 94.35 from a North American close Wednesday around 94.05, while EUR/JPY is up at 134.30 from around 133.80.
This morning, Gold is at, 946.30 USD, Copper 278.60 USX and Brent Crude 74.64 USD Yesterday Crude oil prices surged after the government’s weekly inventory report revealed a surprise decline in stockpiles. Gold demand fell to its lowest level in six years in the second quarter, the World Gold Council said yesterday, as the global downturn hit jewellery consumption and electronics producers’ buying demand. Demand worldwide fell nine per cent to it’s the lowest level since the first quarter of 2003. Just as the price of the commodity slides to a seven-year low, a hedge fund has made a large bet that natural gas prices will triple by winter.
Due for release today there are the GBP retail sales and CHF ZEW Survey.
Wednesday, 19 August 2009
Morning Call by Greg Secker
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed 0.9% higher I closed 40.77 points higher at 4,685.78, this was led by gains from banks and miners which recovered from losses in the previous session. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 82.60 points (or 0.9%) at 9,217.94. Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 25.08 points (or 1.3%) at 1,955.92. The S and P 500 index was up 9.94 points or 1.01% at 989.67. Better than expected results from big retailers urged investors back into the market. European stocks inched up on Tuesday as the main indices covered lost ground during Monday’s session when markets hit a four-week low.
According to Knight Frank head Richard White, the property downturn has now reached the bottom. Tesco, the UK’s biggest retailer is continuing to lose market share. Tesco saw its market share of the grocery sector fall over the 12 weeks to August 9 as competition among the supermarkets intensified. Unexpectedly Inflation held steady in July. The CPI (consumer price index) was unchanged from June, keeping an annual rate of 1.8%. However many economists are still warning that deflation looms. Investor confidence in Germany, rose sharply this month as hopes grew that the economy will recover faster than expected. US producer prices fell by a larger-than-expected amount in July and notched up a record decline compared to a year earlier. The Labor Department said that the seasonally adjusted index for prices paid at the farm and factory gate dropped by 0.9%. The recovery has begun – although recovery will be unpredictable and protracted, according to the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, writes the Telegraph. “The recovery has started,” claims Olivier Blanchard in a paper to be published by the IMF on Wednesday. Corporate Bond issuance has risen to a record £1,103 billion in 2009, with four months of the year to go. Investors have moved their cash into corporate bonds because they offer higher returns than low interest rates on bank deposits and savings accounts. The telegraph reports that China and Australia have signed their biggest ever trade deal with PetroChina, they have agreed to buy A$50bn (£25bn) of natural gas produced by ExxonMobil.
Cable is down in early trade, presently at 1.6489. The move comes with risk aversion picking up as Chinese stocks again come under heavy pressure. This could have been affected by comments made by the next UK Prime Minister David Cameron that the British Government could default on it’s debts. EUR/USD has slipped back in early European trading, giving up some 25 points, presently at 1.4097.
This morning Gold is at, 939.00 USD, Copper 271.40 USX and Brent Crude 71.87 USD. There is fear is that fiscal stimuli flooding into the global economy will result in too much cash chasing too few grains and therefore causing higher prices. Sugar prices have been pushed to their highest level in three decades due to Global shortage, prices of soyabeans and corn have languished due to optimal summer growing conditions in the US Midwest.
Due for release today there are the GBP Bank of England Minutes, CAD Consumer Price Index, CAD Consumer Price Index, CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index and CAD Leading Indicators
According to Knight Frank head Richard White, the property downturn has now reached the bottom. Tesco, the UK’s biggest retailer is continuing to lose market share. Tesco saw its market share of the grocery sector fall over the 12 weeks to August 9 as competition among the supermarkets intensified. Unexpectedly Inflation held steady in July. The CPI (consumer price index) was unchanged from June, keeping an annual rate of 1.8%. However many economists are still warning that deflation looms. Investor confidence in Germany, rose sharply this month as hopes grew that the economy will recover faster than expected. US producer prices fell by a larger-than-expected amount in July and notched up a record decline compared to a year earlier. The Labor Department said that the seasonally adjusted index for prices paid at the farm and factory gate dropped by 0.9%. The recovery has begun – although recovery will be unpredictable and protracted, according to the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, writes the Telegraph. “The recovery has started,” claims Olivier Blanchard in a paper to be published by the IMF on Wednesday. Corporate Bond issuance has risen to a record £1,103 billion in 2009, with four months of the year to go. Investors have moved their cash into corporate bonds because they offer higher returns than low interest rates on bank deposits and savings accounts. The telegraph reports that China and Australia have signed their biggest ever trade deal with PetroChina, they have agreed to buy A$50bn (£25bn) of natural gas produced by ExxonMobil.
Cable is down in early trade, presently at 1.6489. The move comes with risk aversion picking up as Chinese stocks again come under heavy pressure. This could have been affected by comments made by the next UK Prime Minister David Cameron that the British Government could default on it’s debts. EUR/USD has slipped back in early European trading, giving up some 25 points, presently at 1.4097.
This morning Gold is at, 939.00 USD, Copper 271.40 USX and Brent Crude 71.87 USD. There is fear is that fiscal stimuli flooding into the global economy will result in too much cash chasing too few grains and therefore causing higher prices. Sugar prices have been pushed to their highest level in three decades due to Global shortage, prices of soyabeans and corn have languished due to optimal summer growing conditions in the US Midwest.
Due for release today there are the GBP Bank of England Minutes, CAD Consumer Price Index, CAD Consumer Price Index, CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index and CAD Leading Indicators
Friday, 14 August 2009
Morning Call by Greg Secker
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 rose by 38.7 points (0.8%) to 4,755.46 to a 10-month closing high. All miners showed increases. Among the largest movers were Antofagasta, Eurasian, Natural Resources, Kazakhyms and Xstrata, which gained between 4.6 and 6 %.Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 36.58 points (0.39%) to 9,3978.19.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index rose 6.92 points (or 0.69%) to close at 1,012.73.Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index added 10.63 points (or 0.53%) to close at 2,009.35. Meanwhile, equity futures indicate: Dow futures are higher by 85 points to 9,404, while S&P futures are up 9.5 points at 1,012.US stocks rose as better-than expected shares in Walmart helped off-set disappointing government numbers in on retail sales and jobs. However results from the rest of the retail sector were varied. Asian Stocks also rose , driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to the highest level since September, this was based on speculation that improving corporate earnings will extend a 5-month rally in equities.
Sales at US retailers unexpectedly fell in July and the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week. Commerce Department yesterday showed that total retail sales edged down -0.1% compare to market forecasts expecting a 0.7% rise. Analyst expected the ‘cash for clunkers’ program would have improved retail sales. The Labor department also showed first time applications for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to 558,000 last week. Yesterday, surprisingly France and Germany made a return to growth. Figures from the Eurostat showed that both economies grew by 0.3% in the three months to June on the previous quarter, the increased output was boosted by consumer spending – in particular the success of car scrappage schemes. European stock markets closed higher yesterday, helped by this growth data.
Asda attracted more than 18m customers a week for the first time in its 44-year history, but falling food inflation pegged back its recent powerful sales growth. The Wal-Mart-owned grocer posted underlying sales, excluding fuel, up by 7.2% in the three months to 30 June, down from 8.4% in the previous quarter, the Independent reports. RWE which is Europe’s fifth largest utility, yesterday met forecasts with a 3.8% rise in first half operating profit, as lucrative power sales made up for weak performance at it’s subsidiary NPower.
EUR/USD having opened a little lower today, currently down at around 1.4267. For today, technical resistances are up at 1.4300/05. Cable has opened slightly lower, currently lower at around the 1.6557 mark. JPY/USD is currently down at 95.31, while EUR/JPY is down at 135.93 having opened at 136.16.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index, USD Consumer Price Index , USD Consumer Price Index ex Food and USD industrial production.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index rose 6.92 points (or 0.69%) to close at 1,012.73.Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index added 10.63 points (or 0.53%) to close at 2,009.35. Meanwhile, equity futures indicate: Dow futures are higher by 85 points to 9,404, while S&P futures are up 9.5 points at 1,012.US stocks rose as better-than expected shares in Walmart helped off-set disappointing government numbers in on retail sales and jobs. However results from the rest of the retail sector were varied. Asian Stocks also rose , driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to the highest level since September, this was based on speculation that improving corporate earnings will extend a 5-month rally in equities.
Sales at US retailers unexpectedly fell in July and the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week. Commerce Department yesterday showed that total retail sales edged down -0.1% compare to market forecasts expecting a 0.7% rise. Analyst expected the ‘cash for clunkers’ program would have improved retail sales. The Labor department also showed first time applications for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to 558,000 last week. Yesterday, surprisingly France and Germany made a return to growth. Figures from the Eurostat showed that both economies grew by 0.3% in the three months to June on the previous quarter, the increased output was boosted by consumer spending – in particular the success of car scrappage schemes. European stock markets closed higher yesterday, helped by this growth data.
Asda attracted more than 18m customers a week for the first time in its 44-year history, but falling food inflation pegged back its recent powerful sales growth. The Wal-Mart-owned grocer posted underlying sales, excluding fuel, up by 7.2% in the three months to 30 June, down from 8.4% in the previous quarter, the Independent reports. RWE which is Europe’s fifth largest utility, yesterday met forecasts with a 3.8% rise in first half operating profit, as lucrative power sales made up for weak performance at it’s subsidiary NPower.
EUR/USD having opened a little lower today, currently down at around 1.4267. For today, technical resistances are up at 1.4300/05. Cable has opened slightly lower, currently lower at around the 1.6557 mark. JPY/USD is currently down at 95.31, while EUR/JPY is down at 135.93 having opened at 136.16.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index, USD Consumer Price Index , USD Consumer Price Index ex Food and USD industrial production.
Wednesday, 12 August 2009
Morning Call by Greg Secker
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 was 50.86 points lower at 4,671.34 by the close of the session. Weakness was shown in the heavyweight banks, miners, and oils, but defensive stocks were back in favor once again. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 96.28 points (or 1.03%) to 9,241.67. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell 12.77 points (or 1.27%) to 994.33. Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index slid 22.51 points (or 1.13%) to close at 1,969.73. Investors were cautious as the US Federal Reserve two day monetary policy meeting got underway and also an unexpectedly large drop in wholesale inventories raised worries about an economic recovery. Further earnings reports are due this week from retailers Wal-Mart, JC Penney and Macy’s.
Britain’s bigger listed companies are forecast to pay out £8bn ($13bn) less in dividends this year as many seek to repair balance sheets that became overstretched before the credit crunch. According to Capita Registrars, the dividends received by shareholders in these groups fell 9$ to £28bn in the first half of 2009. Threadneedle Street’s latest growth and inflation forecasts published today are widely expected to be downbeat about the prospects for the UK economy, suggesting a weak recovery and the potential for further expansion of Quantitative Easing (QE). Also today’s jobless figures are due, there has been a worrying increase in jobless figures in recent months, and unless there is an indication of this easing there are concerns that this could rise to 3 million this year. However on a more positive note, the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) found that UK house prices rose 1.6% in June on the previous month.
Cable at 1.6458 is drifting a little lower in early trade. The market now awaits the release of latest jobs data and BOE quarterly inflation report later this morning. Resistance levels are up around the 1.6520 and 1.6550 levels. The JPY has seen some further strength, USD/JPY down at 95.54 from 97.11, while EUR/JPY is down at 135.10 from around 135.80. With Asian stocks trading lower, the JPY is benefitting from a pickup in risk aversion. There is also some focus on today’s FOMC meet, the Fed is widely expected to affirm its commitment to an accommodative monetary policy i.e. to keep interest rates low. EUR/USD sits at 1.4135, just below yesterday’s close.
US crude oil dipped below the $70-a-barrel mark on Tuesday after cautious remarks from Opec, warned that sustaining prices at current levels would depend on “clearer signs of improvement in the global economy”. Today Gold is at 947.40 USD, Brent Crude is at 72.17 USD and Copper is currently at 275.20 USX.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUL), GBP average Earning Ex Bonus, Bank of England quarterly inflation report. In the Euro zone industrial production June expected +0.2% m/m. In the US, USD Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and USD trade balance.
Britain’s bigger listed companies are forecast to pay out £8bn ($13bn) less in dividends this year as many seek to repair balance sheets that became overstretched before the credit crunch. According to Capita Registrars, the dividends received by shareholders in these groups fell 9$ to £28bn in the first half of 2009. Threadneedle Street’s latest growth and inflation forecasts published today are widely expected to be downbeat about the prospects for the UK economy, suggesting a weak recovery and the potential for further expansion of Quantitative Easing (QE). Also today’s jobless figures are due, there has been a worrying increase in jobless figures in recent months, and unless there is an indication of this easing there are concerns that this could rise to 3 million this year. However on a more positive note, the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) found that UK house prices rose 1.6% in June on the previous month.
Cable at 1.6458 is drifting a little lower in early trade. The market now awaits the release of latest jobs data and BOE quarterly inflation report later this morning. Resistance levels are up around the 1.6520 and 1.6550 levels. The JPY has seen some further strength, USD/JPY down at 95.54 from 97.11, while EUR/JPY is down at 135.10 from around 135.80. With Asian stocks trading lower, the JPY is benefitting from a pickup in risk aversion. There is also some focus on today’s FOMC meet, the Fed is widely expected to affirm its commitment to an accommodative monetary policy i.e. to keep interest rates low. EUR/USD sits at 1.4135, just below yesterday’s close.
US crude oil dipped below the $70-a-barrel mark on Tuesday after cautious remarks from Opec, warned that sustaining prices at current levels would depend on “clearer signs of improvement in the global economy”. Today Gold is at 947.40 USD, Brent Crude is at 72.17 USD and Copper is currently at 275.20 USX.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUL), GBP average Earning Ex Bonus, Bank of England quarterly inflation report. In the Euro zone industrial production June expected +0.2% m/m. In the US, USD Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and USD trade balance.
Tuesday, 11 August 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
The FTSE dropped yesterday ending down 9.36 points (or 0.2%) at 4,722.20, after reaching a 10-month closing high on Friday. Miners were the worst performers on the index. Last week investors booked profits from substantial gains in miners and banks.
US stocks fell as investors booked profits following a four-week rally. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 32.12 points (or 0.34%) to close at 9,337.95. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell 3.38 points (or 0.33%) to close at 1,007.10. Yesterday, the Nasdaq dropped by 8.01 points (or 0.4%) to close at 1,992.24. There is an abundance of economic data due for release this week, including the Federal Reserve interest rate statement and government figures for monthly retail sales.
Today Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance came in at -8.1, better than the expected -10.0, and the highest reading since August 2007. According to the Markets UK Regional Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) London had the steepest rate of job cuts in July. Employment was found to be falling at its fastest rate for 5 months. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) today released figures showing that the retail sales values rose by 1.8% on a like for like basis compared to last July.
Food retail sales rose 4.2%, whilst non-food fell 1.4%. Tomorrow’s, BOE quarterly inflation report and June jobs data remain obstacles to further gains. This week all eyes are on the record £75bn US debt sale by the US treasury and Federal Reserves. The Federal Reserve meeting finishes tomorrow, the sale is set to open around two hours before the end of the two-day meeting, there is concern in the market that this could cause diminished demand.
EUR/USD little changed, overnight and the EUR/USD is currently bouncing around the 1.4149 level. Cable has drifted a little lower in early European trade but has made some gains now at the 1.6486 mark. The JPY has gained strength with the USD/JPY down at 96.80. JPY has benefited from disappointing Chinese data. The main reason for the USD to rebound late last week; was the markets anticipation that the Fed might exit from its zero interest rate policy sooner than expected.
The US currency advanced strongly on Friday, gaining more than 2 per cent against the yen and more than 1 per cent against the euro and the pound, following the release of stronger-than-expected US jobs data.
Today Gold is at 949.40 USD, Brent Crude is at 73.83 USD and Copper is currently at 279.50 USX.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, GBP Visible Trade Balance (JUN), GBP Total Trade Balance (JUN), CAD Housing Starts (JUL), USD Non-Farm Productivity (2QP), USD Unit Labor Costs.
US stocks fell as investors booked profits following a four-week rally. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 32.12 points (or 0.34%) to close at 9,337.95. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell 3.38 points (or 0.33%) to close at 1,007.10. Yesterday, the Nasdaq dropped by 8.01 points (or 0.4%) to close at 1,992.24. There is an abundance of economic data due for release this week, including the Federal Reserve interest rate statement and government figures for monthly retail sales.
Today Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance came in at -8.1, better than the expected -10.0, and the highest reading since August 2007. According to the Markets UK Regional Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) London had the steepest rate of job cuts in July. Employment was found to be falling at its fastest rate for 5 months. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) today released figures showing that the retail sales values rose by 1.8% on a like for like basis compared to last July.
Food retail sales rose 4.2%, whilst non-food fell 1.4%. Tomorrow’s, BOE quarterly inflation report and June jobs data remain obstacles to further gains. This week all eyes are on the record £75bn US debt sale by the US treasury and Federal Reserves. The Federal Reserve meeting finishes tomorrow, the sale is set to open around two hours before the end of the two-day meeting, there is concern in the market that this could cause diminished demand.
EUR/USD little changed, overnight and the EUR/USD is currently bouncing around the 1.4149 level. Cable has drifted a little lower in early European trade but has made some gains now at the 1.6486 mark. The JPY has gained strength with the USD/JPY down at 96.80. JPY has benefited from disappointing Chinese data. The main reason for the USD to rebound late last week; was the markets anticipation that the Fed might exit from its zero interest rate policy sooner than expected.
The US currency advanced strongly on Friday, gaining more than 2 per cent against the yen and more than 1 per cent against the euro and the pound, following the release of stronger-than-expected US jobs data.
Today Gold is at 949.40 USD, Brent Crude is at 73.83 USD and Copper is currently at 279.50 USX.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, GBP Visible Trade Balance (JUN), GBP Total Trade Balance (JUN), CAD Housing Starts (JUL), USD Non-Farm Productivity (2QP), USD Unit Labor Costs.
Friday, 7 August 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 added 43.40 points to close up (0.9%) at 4,690.53. The FTSE hit a new intraday high of 4,729.58 driven by the strength of banks as the BoE announced a further 50 billion of QE. This announcement saw gilt futures soar. Weakness was shown among oil stocks, as US crude oil prices decreased by $1 to $71 a barrel. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 24.71 points, or 0.27 % to 9,256.26. The S and P 500 Index fell 5.64 points (or 0.56%) to 997.08. Losses were broad based, with the consumer staples and telecommunications services sectors among the biggest losers. The Nasdaq fell 19.89 points to close at 1,973.16. Investors in the US were cautious ahead of the critical government report on July employment and took profits after recent gains.
US retailers reported their eleventh straight month of sales declines for July yesterday, but data showed that jobless claims fell last week, fanning hopes that the job market may be stabilizing. The BOE shocked the markets yesterday with an unexpected increase of its quantitative easing program to $175bn. The bank said that the recent recession appears to be deeper than thought and that while recent data suggested that a recovery in output was near credit conditions remained tight. RBA issues an upbeat assessment of the Australian economy. Their previous stance was seen as pessimistic by many so this readjustment was positive. German June trade surplus has come in better than median forecast of 10.6 bn. Assets invested globally in exchange traded funds have reached a record high of $862bn on the back of the partial recovery in stock markets and the continuing strong demand for passive investment, according to data from Barclays Global Investors Global exchange-traded funds (ETF). The value of global ETFs plunged from $805bn in April 2008 to $711bn at the end of last year as the global recession hit stock, fixed income and commodity markets, the FT reports.
Yesterday Sterling fell more than a cent against the dollar after it hit a nine month high earlier this week; after the BOE decided to keep interest rates at 0.5% and increase its QE from 125 bn to 175 bn. Cable has opened slightly lower today and is still pushing lower at present, currently around the 1.6757 mark. EUR/USD has slipped lower in early European trading, presently at 1.4353. There is resistance at around 1.4452. This has been fueled by comments from ECB’s Trichet, stating we’re still in a period of economic contraction, freefall is over, but we must remain cautious.
Today Gold is at 962.00 USD, Brent Crude is at 74.89.53 USD and Copper is currently at 272.45 USX. Oil has already risen by a third this year and there are concerns as sugar also reaches a 28 year high, up 65% since January.
US retailers reported their eleventh straight month of sales declines for July yesterday, but data showed that jobless claims fell last week, fanning hopes that the job market may be stabilizing. The BOE shocked the markets yesterday with an unexpected increase of its quantitative easing program to $175bn. The bank said that the recent recession appears to be deeper than thought and that while recent data suggested that a recovery in output was near credit conditions remained tight. RBA issues an upbeat assessment of the Australian economy. Their previous stance was seen as pessimistic by many so this readjustment was positive. German June trade surplus has come in better than median forecast of 10.6 bn. Assets invested globally in exchange traded funds have reached a record high of $862bn on the back of the partial recovery in stock markets and the continuing strong demand for passive investment, according to data from Barclays Global Investors Global exchange-traded funds (ETF). The value of global ETFs plunged from $805bn in April 2008 to $711bn at the end of last year as the global recession hit stock, fixed income and commodity markets, the FT reports.
Yesterday Sterling fell more than a cent against the dollar after it hit a nine month high earlier this week; after the BOE decided to keep interest rates at 0.5% and increase its QE from 125 bn to 175 bn. Cable has opened slightly lower today and is still pushing lower at present, currently around the 1.6757 mark. EUR/USD has slipped lower in early European trading, presently at 1.4353. There is resistance at around 1.4452. This has been fueled by comments from ECB’s Trichet, stating we’re still in a period of economic contraction, freefall is over, but we must remain cautious.
Today Gold is at 962.00 USD, Brent Crude is at 74.89.53 USD and Copper is currently at 272.45 USX. Oil has already risen by a third this year and there are concerns as sugar also reaches a 28 year high, up 65% since January.
Thursday, 6 August 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 ended 24.24 points lower (down 0.5%) at 4,647.13. The weaker than expected data in the US dragged the equities lower, with oil producers and miners leading the losers. This has caused investors to shift into Finance (up 1.56%) and also Consumer Cyclicals (up 1.19%). Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 39.22 points to close at 9,280.97. The S and P 500 Index fell 0.29 points to close at 1002.72.The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 18.26 points to close at -18.26. The weaker data from the services sector and private payroll knocked recent US optimism and the market finished off low as investors ventured into riskier financial shares.
BDO Stoy Hayward has announced that Private equity and trade M&A has fallen for the sixth successive quarter in a row with half the number of deals being completed in Q2 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. With UK manufacturing and construction surveys rising strongly, hope has been raised for a rising GDP in Q3. In addition a strong report from the Halifax has suggested that house prices are stabilizing and the recent Services sector purchasing managers index has jumped to 53.2 suggesting a return to growth. A worrying factor for the UK at the moment is the weak M4 money supply growth rate, which could affect the QE plans of the MPC today. Government data showed that orders received by US factory’s unexpectedly rose in June, advancing for a third month in a row. While factory orders data was strong, reports on the services and labor markets were weaker. Yesterday, Eurozone retail sales fell unexpectedly in June pointing to a weak consumer demand. Retail trade was expected to rise 0.2% but instead fell 0.2%. Today the ECB is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 1%. Swiss consumers are not feeling too confident these days. Market will be looking to Trichet for hints regarding quantitative easing and monetary policy bias. The Swiss consumer sentiment index fell to -42 in the Q3 from -38 points in the previous quarterly survey. The result is pretty much in line with the median forecast of -43.
Yesterday, it was a nine month high for the Sterling which rose to $1.7039 after industrial output recorded a surprise increase. Cable has ticked higher in early European trade, but is presently at 1.6983. General sentiment is against the Bank of England quantitative easing program, will lend cable some support. Technical resistances now come at 1.7025/30 and then 1.7045/50. The dollar weakened on worse than expected US job losses. Despite an awaited ECB rate decision; EURO/USD has remained fairly stable at around the 1.4408 mark.
Today Gold has dropped - 0.1% to 964.40 USD, Brent Crude has remained stable today at 75.53 USD and Copper is currently 277.60USX.
Due for release today there is a variety of important releases, EUR German Factory Orders, EUR German Factory Orders, GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, EUR European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.
BDO Stoy Hayward has announced that Private equity and trade M&A has fallen for the sixth successive quarter in a row with half the number of deals being completed in Q2 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. With UK manufacturing and construction surveys rising strongly, hope has been raised for a rising GDP in Q3. In addition a strong report from the Halifax has suggested that house prices are stabilizing and the recent Services sector purchasing managers index has jumped to 53.2 suggesting a return to growth. A worrying factor for the UK at the moment is the weak M4 money supply growth rate, which could affect the QE plans of the MPC today. Government data showed that orders received by US factory’s unexpectedly rose in June, advancing for a third month in a row. While factory orders data was strong, reports on the services and labor markets were weaker. Yesterday, Eurozone retail sales fell unexpectedly in June pointing to a weak consumer demand. Retail trade was expected to rise 0.2% but instead fell 0.2%. Today the ECB is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 1%. Swiss consumers are not feeling too confident these days. Market will be looking to Trichet for hints regarding quantitative easing and monetary policy bias. The Swiss consumer sentiment index fell to -42 in the Q3 from -38 points in the previous quarterly survey. The result is pretty much in line with the median forecast of -43.
Yesterday, it was a nine month high for the Sterling which rose to $1.7039 after industrial output recorded a surprise increase. Cable has ticked higher in early European trade, but is presently at 1.6983. General sentiment is against the Bank of England quantitative easing program, will lend cable some support. Technical resistances now come at 1.7025/30 and then 1.7045/50. The dollar weakened on worse than expected US job losses. Despite an awaited ECB rate decision; EURO/USD has remained fairly stable at around the 1.4408 mark.
Today Gold has dropped - 0.1% to 964.40 USD, Brent Crude has remained stable today at 75.53 USD and Copper is currently 277.60USX.
Due for release today there is a variety of important releases, EUR German Factory Orders, EUR German Factory Orders, GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, EUR European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.
Wednesday, 5 August 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
In forex news, the yen rose again yesterday against the euro and the dollar as Asian equity markets and US stock futures declined. The dollar is testing levels near 2009 lows against the euro as a strong housing report suggests that the recession is coming to an end. In key data releases the GBP Halifax HPI released this morning was better than expected at 1.1%. At 9.30 is the GBP manufacturing production m/m and the services PMI. At 1.15pm watch out for the USD ADP non-farm employment change and then at 3.00pm, USD ISM non-manufacturing. Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed down 11 to close at 4,671.
Tuesday, 4 August 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
In forex news, the U.S. dollar fell yesterday against a basket of currencies to its lowest level in eleven months as rising global equity markets and encouraging economic data from around the world eroded the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. Positive manufacturing reports from the United States, Europe and China lifted hopes about the global economy and boosted risk appetite. That drove the euro to a 2009 high and sterling and the Australian and New Zealand dollars to their highest since autumn versus the U.S. currency. In overnight data releases the AUD central bank left official interest steady at 3.00% and major data releases to look out for today there is the USD pending home sales at 3.00pm. Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 74 points to closed at 4,682. The rise was lead by good news from Barclays and HSBC.
Monday, 3 August 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
On Friday the FTSE closed down 24 points at 4,608 and formed a high-test bar bouncing off 4,650. The Dow closed up 16 points at 9,171. In Forex news the US dollar tested two month lows against the euro as the market shift focus to higher yielding currencies on expectations that US manufacturing will show improvement with pace of contraction slowing. In data releases today to look out for GBP manufacturing PMI at 9.30am and the USD ISM manufacturing PMI at 3.00pm. Then at 11.45pm there is the NZD labor cost index q/q.
Friday, 31 July 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
Yesterday the FTSE closed up 84 points at 4,631, and the Dow closed up 82 points at 9,154. In forex news, the dollar fell against the euro as the market sought higher yielding currencies. There is increased sentiment from positive economic data and rising stocks that the world is recovering from the recession which is increasing risk appetite. The yen also fell against Australian dollar on the strength of global equities, encouraging investors to seek higher yielding assets. In data releases today there is the CHF KOF economic barometer at 10.30am; CAD GDP and USD advance GDP at 1.30pm.
Thursday, 30 July 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
Yesterday the FTSE closed up 18 points at 4,547 and the Dow closed down 26 points at 9,070. In forex news the yen declined against the euro after a government report showed Japanese manufacturers boosted production for a fourth month, reducing demand for safe-haven currencies. The euro traded near a one-month high versus the Swiss franc before a European report that may show executive and consumer confidence rose to an eight-month high, adding to signs the recession in the 16- nation region may be receding. New Zealand’s dollar fell the most in three weeks against the US dollar after the nation’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a second month. In data releases today the GBP Nationwide HPI figure released this morning was better than expectations at 1.3%. At 1.30pm there is the USD unemployment claims to look out for.
Morning Call by Traders University
Yesterday the FTSE closed up 18 points at 4,547 and the Dow closed down 26 points at 9,070. In forex news the yen declined against the euro after a government report showed Japanese manufacturers boosted production for a fourth month, reducing demand for safe-haven currencies. The euro traded near a one-month high versus the Swiss franc before a European report that may show executive and consumer confidence rose to an eight-month high, adding to signs the recession in the 16- nation region may be receding. New Zealand’s dollar fell the most in three weeks against the US dollar after the nation’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a second month. In data releases today the GBP Nationwide HPI figure released this morning was better than expectations at 1.3%. At 1.30pm there is the USD unemployment claims to look out for.
Wednesday, 29 July 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
In forex news, the yen and the dollar rose versus the euro before a report economists said will show orders for durable goods in the U.S. fell last month, curbing demand for higher-yielding assets.
The Japanese currency also advanced due speculation domestic investors are repatriating earnings from European government bonds that mature tomorrow. The Australian dollar fell from near its highest level this year against the greenback. In major data releases today to look out for is the USD core durable orders m/m at 1.30pm and the NZD official cash rate at 10.00pm. The FTSE closed yesterday down 57 points at 4,528.
The Japanese currency also advanced due speculation domestic investors are repatriating earnings from European government bonds that mature tomorrow. The Australian dollar fell from near its highest level this year against the greenback. In major data releases today to look out for is the USD core durable orders m/m at 1.30pm and the NZD official cash rate at 10.00pm. The FTSE closed yesterday down 57 points at 4,528.
Tuesday, 28 July 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
The US dollar traded at seven week lows against the euro as Asian equity markets continued the global rally. Investors are focusing on higher yielding assets. The Aussie dollar rose against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia said the nation’s economy may rebound faster then it forecast six months ago. In data releases today to watch out for we have the GBP CBI realized sales at 11.00am. Then at 3.00pm there is the USD CB consumer confidence and for those trading later on into the evening, the NZD building consents m/m at 11.45pm. Yesterday the FTSE closed up 9 points at 4,586 and the Dow closed up 14 points at 9,108.
Monday, 27 July 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
On Friday the FTSE closed up 16 points and closed at 4,576, making the 10th consecutive buyers bar on the chart. The Dow closed up 23 points at 9,093 and the S&P closed up just 3 points at 979. Both of the major US indices appear comfortable trading above their 200ema and have broken recent level of resistance. In forex news, the dollar fell further on Friday and tested seven week lows against the euro together with a drop in the yen as US company profit announcements were better then expectations, and thereby fuelling risk appetite in lieu of safety. The euro appreciated for the second week after assessments reported that the rate of contraction in European manufacturing and service industries slowed more then forecast, in addition to a rise in German business confidence. The Canadian dollar also saw healthy rises on the back of oil price increases and the central bank statement that the nation’s recession is coming to an end. In major data releases watch out for the USD new home sales at 3.00pm.
Wednesday, 22 July 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
Yesterday the FTSE closed up 37 points at 4,481 and the Dow closed up 67 points at 8,916. In forex news, the yen and the dollar strengthened for a second day against the euro on concern the recovery of the global banking industry from the financial turmoil will be delayed, boosting demand for safer assets. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars dropped for the first time in three days against the greenback after Fed Chairman Bernanke said financial markets remained “stressed,” spurring demand for safer assets. In data releases today watch out for the MPC minutes at 9.30am that could impact GBP. At 1.30pm we have CAD retails sales and then at 3.00pm exercise caution as Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies.
Tuesday, 21 July 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
Yesterday the FTSE closed up 54 points at 4,443 and the Dow closed up 103 points at 8,848. In forex news the yen and dollar rose the most against higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars after Fed Chairman Bernanke signalled the central bank may eventually have to withdraw its expansionary policy to prevent inflation. In data releases to watch out for today today we have the CAD official cash statement at 2.00pm and at 3.00pm Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.
Monday, 20 July 2009
Morning Call by Traders University
On Friday the FTSE 100 closed up 26 points at 4,388 and the Dow closed up 32 points at 8,744. The FTSE gained resistance on 4,400 and the 200ema, and the Dow gained resistance from 8,760 and the 200ema. In forex news the yen and the dollar fell against higher-yielding currencies as stocks gained before a U.S. report that economists said will show a gauge of the economic outlook improved, weakening demand for safer assets. The dollar index fell to a six week low. In overnight news the AUD PPI was worse than expected at 0.8%. No other significant news for release today.
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