Yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed up by 66.91 points to close at 4,756.58. The index saw a broad based recovery, with miners, oils and financials showing strength. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 70.89 points (or 0.76%) to end at 9,350.05. Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 19.98 points (or 1.01%) to close at 1,989.22. The S and P 500 index was up 10.91 points (or 1.09%) to finish at 1,007.37. US stock increased for the 3rd consecutive session, financial stocks showed gains after US manufacturing data and a rebound in Chinese stocks improved risk appetite.
In July the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that government net borrowing hit a record £8bn following a slump in tax receipts. Receipts are shrinking faster than the Treasury had predicted. Alistair Buchanan, chief executive of Ofgem, the energy regulator, has had a meeting with some of Britain’s largest energy companies after it emerged they were forcing as many as 250,000 small businesses to pay for their energy up to seven months in advance. There is increased concern that this could put these companies into difficulties. Yesterday, the government cut the price of its £5bn credit insurance guarantee scheme to help protect suppliers from the collapse of their customers. The scheme lets suppliers buy six months of government-backed insurance to either restore cover to its original level or to double the amount they can obtain from the private sector. British businesses are more confident about their trading than they have been for 13 months, According the Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Business Barometer, 30 per cent of businesses questioned in July expected their business activity to rise over the next year. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said yesterday, gross mortgage lending rose 26 per cent in July on the previous month but remains 36 per cent down on 2008. The Obama administration said yesterday, the US’s ‘cash for clunkers’ scheme will end on Monday. The government said the scheme was “an overwhelming success”, the program was called to a halt to make sure Congress does not exceed the allocated $3bn for the project. A stabilising US financial sector has allowed Barack Obama to trim 2009 budget deficit projections. Officials said, the White House budget office will lower its deficit forecast next week for the current fiscal year to $1.58 trillion (£95bn) from $1.84 trillion after removing $250bn set aside for bank bailouts. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (which is the world’s largest bank by market value), posted a 3 per cent rise in net profit in the first half from the last year.
Cable is firmer from earlier trade; presently up at 1.6491 but still currently below its open. Technical supports 1.6420, 1.6400 and 1.6375, resistances 1.6495/00 and 1.6515/25.EUR/USD has ticked higher in early trade, presently at 1.4250. The low so far has been 93.49 in USD/JPY and it is certainly unusual to say that USD/JPY is leading the way but that has been the case today. It is currently climbing back up to the 94.00 mark.
This morning, Gold is at, 941.00 USD, Copper 273.35 USX and Brent Crude 73.16 USD.
Due for release today there are the USD existing home sales and Eur-Zone Purchasing Managers Index.
Showing posts with label Foreign exchange trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Foreign exchange trading. Show all posts
Friday, 21 August 2009
Thursday, 20 August 2009
Morning Call by Greg Secker
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed up by 3.89 points (or 0.1%) points to close at 4,689.67. Oil producers were amongst the highest risers as there was increased demand from the US causing firmer crude prices. However, the banks fell, after HSBC traded ex-dividend. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 70.48 points at 9279.16. Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed up at 1,969.24. The S and P 500 index was up 9.58 points to close up at 996.46. US stocks improved as investors reacted to firmer oil prices and investors started to shrug off overseas weakness. Healthcare stocks were among the better performers.
There has been concern among city economists about the weakness of the UK economy after it emerged that the Bank of England governor Mervyn King and two colleagues had pushed to extend quantitative easing (QE) by £75bn earlier this month, rather than the £50bn that was voted in. Detailed forecasts published by the BOE showed that gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 0.2 per cent between July and September, marking the first economic expansion since the first three months of last year. These growth figures have been extrapolated by economists from data published by the Bank in the wake of last week’s Inflation Report. According the independent The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also said yesterday that the world’s 30 most advanced economies stopped contracting in the second quarter of the year, having endured the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. According to research out yesterday by UBS, the devaluation of the Sterling has caused London to drop 19 places in a ranking of the world’s most expensive cities. London now ranks 21st for living costs and its international wage level comparison. Standard & Poor’s has reported that the number of companies defaulting on their debts has risen to record levels this year.
Investment returns for risky corporate debt has rocketed since January. S&P said the amount of debt that has defaulted this year, already exceeds that of all the defaults in 2008. Research shows, that the world’s big investment institutions are dumping cash and bonds and scooping up equities. According to a poll, investor optimism about the global economy has risen to a six-year high and stock market sentiment is at its most bullish for two years. According to the Merrill Lynch fund manager’s survey for August, 75% of respondents believe the world economy will strengthen in the coming 12 months – the highest reading since November 2003. Hurricane Bill is the first of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season and has already hit Category 4 status. Due to this Insurers are concerned they will have another season of billion pound losses. The Obama administration said it will wind down its popular “cash for clunkers” incentive program so as soon as early September. Yesterday, the Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood reassured auto dealers that they would be reimbursed for discounts given under the program.
Cable is ticking higher in early European trade, supported by a generally healthy risk appetite. It is at 1.6575 at writing. Technical resistance now at 1.6590/00. EUR/USD trading is off to a far slower start this morning, the pairing presently sitting at 1.4238. Asian stocks did ok overnight, Chinese stocks rebounding, and looks to increase risk appetite. The USD/JPY is up at 94.35 from a North American close Wednesday around 94.05, while EUR/JPY is up at 134.30 from around 133.80.
This morning, Gold is at, 946.30 USD, Copper 278.60 USX and Brent Crude 74.64 USD Yesterday Crude oil prices surged after the government’s weekly inventory report revealed a surprise decline in stockpiles. Gold demand fell to its lowest level in six years in the second quarter, the World Gold Council said yesterday, as the global downturn hit jewellery consumption and electronics producers’ buying demand. Demand worldwide fell nine per cent to it’s the lowest level since the first quarter of 2003. Just as the price of the commodity slides to a seven-year low, a hedge fund has made a large bet that natural gas prices will triple by winter.
Due for release today there are the GBP retail sales and CHF ZEW Survey.
There has been concern among city economists about the weakness of the UK economy after it emerged that the Bank of England governor Mervyn King and two colleagues had pushed to extend quantitative easing (QE) by £75bn earlier this month, rather than the £50bn that was voted in. Detailed forecasts published by the BOE showed that gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 0.2 per cent between July and September, marking the first economic expansion since the first three months of last year. These growth figures have been extrapolated by economists from data published by the Bank in the wake of last week’s Inflation Report. According the independent The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also said yesterday that the world’s 30 most advanced economies stopped contracting in the second quarter of the year, having endured the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. According to research out yesterday by UBS, the devaluation of the Sterling has caused London to drop 19 places in a ranking of the world’s most expensive cities. London now ranks 21st for living costs and its international wage level comparison. Standard & Poor’s has reported that the number of companies defaulting on their debts has risen to record levels this year.
Investment returns for risky corporate debt has rocketed since January. S&P said the amount of debt that has defaulted this year, already exceeds that of all the defaults in 2008. Research shows, that the world’s big investment institutions are dumping cash and bonds and scooping up equities. According to a poll, investor optimism about the global economy has risen to a six-year high and stock market sentiment is at its most bullish for two years. According to the Merrill Lynch fund manager’s survey for August, 75% of respondents believe the world economy will strengthen in the coming 12 months – the highest reading since November 2003. Hurricane Bill is the first of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season and has already hit Category 4 status. Due to this Insurers are concerned they will have another season of billion pound losses. The Obama administration said it will wind down its popular “cash for clunkers” incentive program so as soon as early September. Yesterday, the Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood reassured auto dealers that they would be reimbursed for discounts given under the program.
Cable is ticking higher in early European trade, supported by a generally healthy risk appetite. It is at 1.6575 at writing. Technical resistance now at 1.6590/00. EUR/USD trading is off to a far slower start this morning, the pairing presently sitting at 1.4238. Asian stocks did ok overnight, Chinese stocks rebounding, and looks to increase risk appetite. The USD/JPY is up at 94.35 from a North American close Wednesday around 94.05, while EUR/JPY is up at 134.30 from around 133.80.
This morning, Gold is at, 946.30 USD, Copper 278.60 USX and Brent Crude 74.64 USD Yesterday Crude oil prices surged after the government’s weekly inventory report revealed a surprise decline in stockpiles. Gold demand fell to its lowest level in six years in the second quarter, the World Gold Council said yesterday, as the global downturn hit jewellery consumption and electronics producers’ buying demand. Demand worldwide fell nine per cent to it’s the lowest level since the first quarter of 2003. Just as the price of the commodity slides to a seven-year low, a hedge fund has made a large bet that natural gas prices will triple by winter.
Due for release today there are the GBP retail sales and CHF ZEW Survey.
Wednesday, 19 August 2009
Morning Call by Greg Secker
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed 0.9% higher I closed 40.77 points higher at 4,685.78, this was led by gains from banks and miners which recovered from losses in the previous session. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 82.60 points (or 0.9%) at 9,217.94. Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 25.08 points (or 1.3%) at 1,955.92. The S and P 500 index was up 9.94 points or 1.01% at 989.67. Better than expected results from big retailers urged investors back into the market. European stocks inched up on Tuesday as the main indices covered lost ground during Monday’s session when markets hit a four-week low.
According to Knight Frank head Richard White, the property downturn has now reached the bottom. Tesco, the UK’s biggest retailer is continuing to lose market share. Tesco saw its market share of the grocery sector fall over the 12 weeks to August 9 as competition among the supermarkets intensified. Unexpectedly Inflation held steady in July. The CPI (consumer price index) was unchanged from June, keeping an annual rate of 1.8%. However many economists are still warning that deflation looms. Investor confidence in Germany, rose sharply this month as hopes grew that the economy will recover faster than expected. US producer prices fell by a larger-than-expected amount in July and notched up a record decline compared to a year earlier. The Labor Department said that the seasonally adjusted index for prices paid at the farm and factory gate dropped by 0.9%. The recovery has begun – although recovery will be unpredictable and protracted, according to the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, writes the Telegraph. “The recovery has started,” claims Olivier Blanchard in a paper to be published by the IMF on Wednesday. Corporate Bond issuance has risen to a record £1,103 billion in 2009, with four months of the year to go. Investors have moved their cash into corporate bonds because they offer higher returns than low interest rates on bank deposits and savings accounts. The telegraph reports that China and Australia have signed their biggest ever trade deal with PetroChina, they have agreed to buy A$50bn (£25bn) of natural gas produced by ExxonMobil.
Cable is down in early trade, presently at 1.6489. The move comes with risk aversion picking up as Chinese stocks again come under heavy pressure. This could have been affected by comments made by the next UK Prime Minister David Cameron that the British Government could default on it’s debts. EUR/USD has slipped back in early European trading, giving up some 25 points, presently at 1.4097.
This morning Gold is at, 939.00 USD, Copper 271.40 USX and Brent Crude 71.87 USD. There is fear is that fiscal stimuli flooding into the global economy will result in too much cash chasing too few grains and therefore causing higher prices. Sugar prices have been pushed to their highest level in three decades due to Global shortage, prices of soyabeans and corn have languished due to optimal summer growing conditions in the US Midwest.
Due for release today there are the GBP Bank of England Minutes, CAD Consumer Price Index, CAD Consumer Price Index, CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index and CAD Leading Indicators
According to Knight Frank head Richard White, the property downturn has now reached the bottom. Tesco, the UK’s biggest retailer is continuing to lose market share. Tesco saw its market share of the grocery sector fall over the 12 weeks to August 9 as competition among the supermarkets intensified. Unexpectedly Inflation held steady in July. The CPI (consumer price index) was unchanged from June, keeping an annual rate of 1.8%. However many economists are still warning that deflation looms. Investor confidence in Germany, rose sharply this month as hopes grew that the economy will recover faster than expected. US producer prices fell by a larger-than-expected amount in July and notched up a record decline compared to a year earlier. The Labor Department said that the seasonally adjusted index for prices paid at the farm and factory gate dropped by 0.9%. The recovery has begun – although recovery will be unpredictable and protracted, according to the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, writes the Telegraph. “The recovery has started,” claims Olivier Blanchard in a paper to be published by the IMF on Wednesday. Corporate Bond issuance has risen to a record £1,103 billion in 2009, with four months of the year to go. Investors have moved their cash into corporate bonds because they offer higher returns than low interest rates on bank deposits and savings accounts. The telegraph reports that China and Australia have signed their biggest ever trade deal with PetroChina, they have agreed to buy A$50bn (£25bn) of natural gas produced by ExxonMobil.
Cable is down in early trade, presently at 1.6489. The move comes with risk aversion picking up as Chinese stocks again come under heavy pressure. This could have been affected by comments made by the next UK Prime Minister David Cameron that the British Government could default on it’s debts. EUR/USD has slipped back in early European trading, giving up some 25 points, presently at 1.4097.
This morning Gold is at, 939.00 USD, Copper 271.40 USX and Brent Crude 71.87 USD. There is fear is that fiscal stimuli flooding into the global economy will result in too much cash chasing too few grains and therefore causing higher prices. Sugar prices have been pushed to their highest level in three decades due to Global shortage, prices of soyabeans and corn have languished due to optimal summer growing conditions in the US Midwest.
Due for release today there are the GBP Bank of England Minutes, CAD Consumer Price Index, CAD Consumer Price Index, CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index and CAD Leading Indicators
Friday, 14 August 2009
Morning Call by Greg Secker
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 rose by 38.7 points (0.8%) to 4,755.46 to a 10-month closing high. All miners showed increases. Among the largest movers were Antofagasta, Eurasian, Natural Resources, Kazakhyms and Xstrata, which gained between 4.6 and 6 %.Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 36.58 points (0.39%) to 9,3978.19.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index rose 6.92 points (or 0.69%) to close at 1,012.73.Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index added 10.63 points (or 0.53%) to close at 2,009.35. Meanwhile, equity futures indicate: Dow futures are higher by 85 points to 9,404, while S&P futures are up 9.5 points at 1,012.US stocks rose as better-than expected shares in Walmart helped off-set disappointing government numbers in on retail sales and jobs. However results from the rest of the retail sector were varied. Asian Stocks also rose , driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to the highest level since September, this was based on speculation that improving corporate earnings will extend a 5-month rally in equities.
Sales at US retailers unexpectedly fell in July and the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week. Commerce Department yesterday showed that total retail sales edged down -0.1% compare to market forecasts expecting a 0.7% rise. Analyst expected the ‘cash for clunkers’ program would have improved retail sales. The Labor department also showed first time applications for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to 558,000 last week. Yesterday, surprisingly France and Germany made a return to growth. Figures from the Eurostat showed that both economies grew by 0.3% in the three months to June on the previous quarter, the increased output was boosted by consumer spending – in particular the success of car scrappage schemes. European stock markets closed higher yesterday, helped by this growth data.
Asda attracted more than 18m customers a week for the first time in its 44-year history, but falling food inflation pegged back its recent powerful sales growth. The Wal-Mart-owned grocer posted underlying sales, excluding fuel, up by 7.2% in the three months to 30 June, down from 8.4% in the previous quarter, the Independent reports. RWE which is Europe’s fifth largest utility, yesterday met forecasts with a 3.8% rise in first half operating profit, as lucrative power sales made up for weak performance at it’s subsidiary NPower.
EUR/USD having opened a little lower today, currently down at around 1.4267. For today, technical resistances are up at 1.4300/05. Cable has opened slightly lower, currently lower at around the 1.6557 mark. JPY/USD is currently down at 95.31, while EUR/JPY is down at 135.93 having opened at 136.16.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index, USD Consumer Price Index , USD Consumer Price Index ex Food and USD industrial production.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index rose 6.92 points (or 0.69%) to close at 1,012.73.Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index added 10.63 points (or 0.53%) to close at 2,009.35. Meanwhile, equity futures indicate: Dow futures are higher by 85 points to 9,404, while S&P futures are up 9.5 points at 1,012.US stocks rose as better-than expected shares in Walmart helped off-set disappointing government numbers in on retail sales and jobs. However results from the rest of the retail sector were varied. Asian Stocks also rose , driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to the highest level since September, this was based on speculation that improving corporate earnings will extend a 5-month rally in equities.
Sales at US retailers unexpectedly fell in July and the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week. Commerce Department yesterday showed that total retail sales edged down -0.1% compare to market forecasts expecting a 0.7% rise. Analyst expected the ‘cash for clunkers’ program would have improved retail sales. The Labor department also showed first time applications for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to 558,000 last week. Yesterday, surprisingly France and Germany made a return to growth. Figures from the Eurostat showed that both economies grew by 0.3% in the three months to June on the previous quarter, the increased output was boosted by consumer spending – in particular the success of car scrappage schemes. European stock markets closed higher yesterday, helped by this growth data.
Asda attracted more than 18m customers a week for the first time in its 44-year history, but falling food inflation pegged back its recent powerful sales growth. The Wal-Mart-owned grocer posted underlying sales, excluding fuel, up by 7.2% in the three months to 30 June, down from 8.4% in the previous quarter, the Independent reports. RWE which is Europe’s fifth largest utility, yesterday met forecasts with a 3.8% rise in first half operating profit, as lucrative power sales made up for weak performance at it’s subsidiary NPower.
EUR/USD having opened a little lower today, currently down at around 1.4267. For today, technical resistances are up at 1.4300/05. Cable has opened slightly lower, currently lower at around the 1.6557 mark. JPY/USD is currently down at 95.31, while EUR/JPY is down at 135.93 having opened at 136.16.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index, USD Consumer Price Index , USD Consumer Price Index ex Food and USD industrial production.
Wednesday, 12 August 2009
Morning Call by Greg Secker
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 was 50.86 points lower at 4,671.34 by the close of the session. Weakness was shown in the heavyweight banks, miners, and oils, but defensive stocks were back in favor once again. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 96.28 points (or 1.03%) to 9,241.67. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell 12.77 points (or 1.27%) to 994.33. Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index slid 22.51 points (or 1.13%) to close at 1,969.73. Investors were cautious as the US Federal Reserve two day monetary policy meeting got underway and also an unexpectedly large drop in wholesale inventories raised worries about an economic recovery. Further earnings reports are due this week from retailers Wal-Mart, JC Penney and Macy’s.
Britain’s bigger listed companies are forecast to pay out £8bn ($13bn) less in dividends this year as many seek to repair balance sheets that became overstretched before the credit crunch. According to Capita Registrars, the dividends received by shareholders in these groups fell 9$ to £28bn in the first half of 2009. Threadneedle Street’s latest growth and inflation forecasts published today are widely expected to be downbeat about the prospects for the UK economy, suggesting a weak recovery and the potential for further expansion of Quantitative Easing (QE). Also today’s jobless figures are due, there has been a worrying increase in jobless figures in recent months, and unless there is an indication of this easing there are concerns that this could rise to 3 million this year. However on a more positive note, the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) found that UK house prices rose 1.6% in June on the previous month.
Cable at 1.6458 is drifting a little lower in early trade. The market now awaits the release of latest jobs data and BOE quarterly inflation report later this morning. Resistance levels are up around the 1.6520 and 1.6550 levels. The JPY has seen some further strength, USD/JPY down at 95.54 from 97.11, while EUR/JPY is down at 135.10 from around 135.80. With Asian stocks trading lower, the JPY is benefitting from a pickup in risk aversion. There is also some focus on today’s FOMC meet, the Fed is widely expected to affirm its commitment to an accommodative monetary policy i.e. to keep interest rates low. EUR/USD sits at 1.4135, just below yesterday’s close.
US crude oil dipped below the $70-a-barrel mark on Tuesday after cautious remarks from Opec, warned that sustaining prices at current levels would depend on “clearer signs of improvement in the global economy”. Today Gold is at 947.40 USD, Brent Crude is at 72.17 USD and Copper is currently at 275.20 USX.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUL), GBP average Earning Ex Bonus, Bank of England quarterly inflation report. In the Euro zone industrial production June expected +0.2% m/m. In the US, USD Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and USD trade balance.
Britain’s bigger listed companies are forecast to pay out £8bn ($13bn) less in dividends this year as many seek to repair balance sheets that became overstretched before the credit crunch. According to Capita Registrars, the dividends received by shareholders in these groups fell 9$ to £28bn in the first half of 2009. Threadneedle Street’s latest growth and inflation forecasts published today are widely expected to be downbeat about the prospects for the UK economy, suggesting a weak recovery and the potential for further expansion of Quantitative Easing (QE). Also today’s jobless figures are due, there has been a worrying increase in jobless figures in recent months, and unless there is an indication of this easing there are concerns that this could rise to 3 million this year. However on a more positive note, the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) found that UK house prices rose 1.6% in June on the previous month.
Cable at 1.6458 is drifting a little lower in early trade. The market now awaits the release of latest jobs data and BOE quarterly inflation report later this morning. Resistance levels are up around the 1.6520 and 1.6550 levels. The JPY has seen some further strength, USD/JPY down at 95.54 from 97.11, while EUR/JPY is down at 135.10 from around 135.80. With Asian stocks trading lower, the JPY is benefitting from a pickup in risk aversion. There is also some focus on today’s FOMC meet, the Fed is widely expected to affirm its commitment to an accommodative monetary policy i.e. to keep interest rates low. EUR/USD sits at 1.4135, just below yesterday’s close.
US crude oil dipped below the $70-a-barrel mark on Tuesday after cautious remarks from Opec, warned that sustaining prices at current levels would depend on “clearer signs of improvement in the global economy”. Today Gold is at 947.40 USD, Brent Crude is at 72.17 USD and Copper is currently at 275.20 USX.
Due for release today there are a variety of releases, GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUL), GBP average Earning Ex Bonus, Bank of England quarterly inflation report. In the Euro zone industrial production June expected +0.2% m/m. In the US, USD Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and USD trade balance.
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