Morning Call by Traders University

The FTSE dropped yesterday ending down 9.36 points (or 0.2%) at 4,722.20, after reaching a 10-month closing high on Friday. Miners were the worst performers on the index. Last week investors booked profits from substantial gains in miners and banks.

US stocks fell as investors booked profits following a four-week rally. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 32.12 points (or 0.34%) to close at 9,337.95. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell 3.38 points (or 0.33%) to close at 1,007.10. Yesterday, the Nasdaq dropped by 8.01 points (or 0.4%) to close at 1,992.24. There is an abundance of economic data due for release this week, including the Federal Reserve interest rate statement and government figures for monthly retail sales.

Today Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance came in at -8.1, better than the expected -10.0, and the highest reading since August 2007. According to the Markets UK Regional Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) London had the steepest rate of job cuts in July. Employment was found to be falling at its fastest rate for 5 months. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) today released figures showing that the retail sales values rose by 1.8% on a like for like basis compared to last July.

Food retail sales rose 4.2%, whilst non-food fell 1.4%. Tomorrow’s, BOE quarterly inflation report and June jobs data remain obstacles to further gains. This week all eyes are on the record £75bn US debt sale by the US treasury and Federal Reserves. The Federal Reserve meeting finishes tomorrow, the sale is set to open around two hours before the end of the two-day meeting, there is concern in the market that this could cause diminished demand.

EUR/USD little changed, overnight and the EUR/USD is currently bouncing around the 1.4149 level. Cable has drifted a little lower in early European trade but has made some gains now at the 1.6486 mark. The JPY has gained strength with the USD/JPY down at 96.80. JPY has benefited from disappointing Chinese data. The main reason for the USD to rebound late last week; was the markets anticipation that the Fed might exit from its zero interest rate policy sooner than expected.

The US currency advanced strongly on Friday, gaining more than 2 per cent against the yen and more than 1 per cent against the euro and the pound, following the release of stronger-than-expected US jobs data.

Today Gold is at 949.40 USD, Brent Crude is at 73.83 USD and Copper is currently at 279.50 USX.

Due for release today there are a variety of releases, GBP Visible Trade Balance (JUN), GBP Total Trade Balance (JUN), CAD Housing Starts (JUL), USD Non-Farm Productivity (2QP), USD Unit Labor Costs.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 added 43.40 points to close up (0.9%) at 4,690.53. The FTSE hit a new intraday high of 4,729.58 driven by the strength of banks as the BoE announced a further 50 billion of QE. This announcement saw gilt futures soar. Weakness was shown among oil stocks, as US crude oil prices decreased by $1 to $71 a barrel. Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 24.71 points, or 0.27 % to 9,256.26. The S and P 500 Index fell 5.64 points (or 0.56%) to 997.08. Losses were broad based, with the consumer staples and telecommunications services sectors among the biggest losers. The Nasdaq fell 19.89 points to close at 1,973.16. Investors in the US were cautious ahead of the critical government report on July employment and took profits after recent gains.

US retailers reported their eleventh straight month of sales declines for July yesterday, but data showed that jobless claims fell last week, fanning hopes that the job market may be stabilizing. The BOE shocked the markets yesterday with an unexpected increase of its quantitative easing program to $175bn. The bank said that the recent recession appears to be deeper than thought and that while recent data suggested that a recovery in output was near credit conditions remained tight. RBA issues an upbeat assessment of the Australian economy. Their previous stance was seen as pessimistic by many so this readjustment was positive. German June trade surplus has come in better than median forecast of 10.6 bn. Assets invested globally in exchange traded funds have reached a record high of $862bn on the back of the partial recovery in stock markets and the continuing strong demand for passive investment, according to data from Barclays Global Investors Global exchange-traded funds (ETF). The value of global ETFs plunged from $805bn in April 2008 to $711bn at the end of last year as the global recession hit stock, fixed income and commodity markets, the FT reports.

Yesterday Sterling fell more than a cent against the dollar after it hit a nine month high earlier this week; after the BOE decided to keep interest rates at 0.5% and increase its QE from 125 bn to 175 bn. Cable has opened slightly lower today and is still pushing lower at present, currently around the 1.6757 mark. EUR/USD has slipped lower in early European trading, presently at 1.4353. There is resistance at around 1.4452. This has been fueled by comments from ECB’s Trichet, stating we’re still in a period of economic contraction, freefall is over, but we must remain cautious.

Today Gold is at 962.00 USD, Brent Crude is at 74.89.53 USD and Copper is currently at 272.45 USX. Oil has already risen by a third this year and there are concerns as sugar also reaches a 28 year high, up 65% since January.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 ended 24.24 points lower (down 0.5%) at 4,647.13. The weaker than expected data in the US dragged the equities lower, with oil producers and miners leading the losers. This has caused investors to shift into Finance (up 1.56%) and also Consumer Cyclicals (up 1.19%). Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 39.22 points to close at 9,280.97. The S and P 500 Index fell 0.29 points to close at 1002.72.The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 18.26 points to close at -18.26. The weaker data from the services sector and private payroll knocked recent US optimism and the market finished off low as investors ventured into riskier financial shares.

BDO Stoy Hayward has announced that Private equity and trade M&A has fallen for the sixth successive quarter in a row with half the number of deals being completed in Q2 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. With UK manufacturing and construction surveys rising strongly, hope has been raised for a rising GDP in Q3. In addition a strong report from the Halifax has suggested that house prices are stabilizing and the recent Services sector purchasing managers index has jumped to 53.2 suggesting a return to growth. A worrying factor for the UK at the moment is the weak M4 money supply growth rate, which could affect the QE plans of the MPC today. Government data showed that orders received by US factory’s unexpectedly rose in June, advancing for a third month in a row. While factory orders data was strong, reports on the services and labor markets were weaker. Yesterday, Eurozone retail sales fell unexpectedly in June pointing to a weak consumer demand. Retail trade was expected to rise 0.2% but instead fell 0.2%. Today the ECB is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 1%. Swiss consumers are not feeling too confident these days. Market will be looking to Trichet for hints regarding quantitative easing and monetary policy bias. The Swiss consumer sentiment index fell to -42 in the Q3 from -38 points in the previous quarterly survey. The result is pretty much in line with the median forecast of -43.

Yesterday, it was a nine month high for the Sterling which rose to $1.7039 after industrial output recorded a surprise increase. Cable has ticked higher in early European trade, but is presently at 1.6983. General sentiment is against the Bank of England quantitative easing program, will lend cable some support. Technical resistances now come at 1.7025/30 and then 1.7045/50. The dollar weakened on worse than expected US job losses. Despite an awaited ECB rate decision; EURO/USD has remained fairly stable at around the 1.4408 mark.

Today Gold has dropped - 0.1% to 964.40 USD, Brent Crude has remained stable today at 75.53 USD and Copper is currently 277.60USX.

Due for release today there is a variety of important releases, EUR German Factory Orders, EUR German Factory Orders, GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, EUR European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.

Morning Call by Traders University

In forex news, the yen rose again yesterday against the euro and the dollar as Asian equity markets and US stock futures declined. The dollar is testing levels near 2009 lows against the euro as a strong housing report suggests that the recession is coming to an end. In key data releases the GBP Halifax HPI released this morning was better than expected at 1.1%. At 9.30 is the GBP manufacturing production m/m and the services PMI. At 1.15pm watch out for the USD ADP non-farm employment change and then at 3.00pm, USD ISM non-manufacturing. Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed down 11 to close at 4,671.

Morning Call by Traders University

In forex news, the U.S. dollar fell yesterday against a basket of currencies to its lowest level in eleven months as rising global equity markets and encouraging economic data from around the world eroded the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. Positive manufacturing reports from the United States, Europe and China lifted hopes about the global economy and boosted risk appetite. That drove the euro to a 2009 high and sterling and the Australian and New Zealand dollars to their highest since autumn versus the U.S. currency. In overnight data releases the AUD central bank left official interest steady at 3.00% and major data releases to look out for today there is the USD pending home sales at 3.00pm. Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 74 points to closed at 4,682. The rise was lead by good news from Barclays and HSBC.

Morning Call by Traders University

On Friday the FTSE closed down 24 points at 4,608 and formed a high-test bar bouncing off 4,650. The Dow closed up 16 points at 9,171. In Forex news the US dollar tested two month lows against the euro as the market shift focus to higher yielding currencies on expectations that US manufacturing will show improvement with pace of contraction slowing. In data releases today to look out for GBP manufacturing PMI at 9.30am and the USD ISM manufacturing PMI at 3.00pm. Then at 11.45pm there is the NZD labor cost index q/q.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday the FTSE closed up 84 points at 4,631, and the Dow closed up 82 points at 9,154. In forex news, the dollar fell against the euro as the market sought higher yielding currencies. There is increased sentiment from positive economic data and rising stocks that the world is recovering from the recession which is increasing risk appetite. The yen also fell against Australian dollar on the strength of global equities, encouraging investors to seek higher yielding assets. In data releases today there is the CHF KOF economic barometer at 10.30am; CAD GDP and USD advance GDP at 1.30pm.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday the FTSE closed up 18 points at 4,547 and the Dow closed down 26 points at 9,070. In forex news the yen declined against the euro after a government report showed Japanese manufacturers boosted production for a fourth month, reducing demand for safe-haven currencies. The euro traded near a one-month high versus the Swiss franc before a European report that may show executive and consumer confidence rose to an eight-month high, adding to signs the recession in the 16- nation region may be receding. New Zealand’s dollar fell the most in three weeks against the US dollar after the nation’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a second month. In data releases today the GBP Nationwide HPI figure released this morning was better than expectations at 1.3%. At 1.30pm there is the USD unemployment claims to look out for.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday the FTSE closed up 18 points at 4,547 and the Dow closed down 26 points at 9,070. In forex news the yen declined against the euro after a government report showed Japanese manufacturers boosted production for a fourth month, reducing demand for safe-haven currencies. The euro traded near a one-month high versus the Swiss franc before a European report that may show executive and consumer confidence rose to an eight-month high, adding to signs the recession in the 16- nation region may be receding. New Zealand’s dollar fell the most in three weeks against the US dollar after the nation’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a second month. In data releases today the GBP Nationwide HPI figure released this morning was better than expectations at 1.3%. At 1.30pm there is the USD unemployment claims to look out for.

Morning Call by Traders University

In forex news, the yen and the dollar rose versus the euro before a report economists said will show orders for durable goods in the U.S. fell last month, curbing demand for higher-yielding assets.
The Japanese currency also advanced due speculation domestic investors are repatriating earnings from European government bonds that mature tomorrow. The Australian dollar fell from near its highest level this year against the greenback. In major data releases today to look out for is the USD core durable orders m/m at 1.30pm and the NZD official cash rate at 10.00pm. The FTSE closed yesterday down 57 points at 4,528.

Morning Call by Traders University

The US dollar traded at seven week lows against the euro as Asian equity markets continued the global rally. Investors are focusing on higher yielding assets. The Aussie dollar rose against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia said the nation’s economy may rebound faster then it forecast six months ago. In data releases today to watch out for we have the GBP CBI realized sales at 11.00am. Then at 3.00pm there is the USD CB consumer confidence and for those trading later on into the evening, the NZD building consents m/m at 11.45pm. Yesterday the FTSE closed up 9 points at 4,586 and the Dow closed up 14 points at 9,108.

Morning Call by Traders University

On Friday the FTSE closed up 16 points and closed at 4,576, making the 10th consecutive buyers bar on the chart. The Dow closed up 23 points at 9,093 and the S&P closed up just 3 points at 979. Both of the major US indices appear comfortable trading above their 200ema and have broken recent level of resistance. In forex news, the dollar fell further on Friday and tested seven week lows against the euro together with a drop in the yen as US company profit announcements were better then expectations, and thereby fuelling risk appetite in lieu of safety. The euro appreciated for the second week after assessments reported that the rate of contraction in European manufacturing and service industries slowed more then forecast, in addition to a rise in German business confidence. The Canadian dollar also saw healthy rises on the back of oil price increases and the central bank statement that the nation’s recession is coming to an end. In major data releases watch out for the USD new home sales at 3.00pm.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday the FTSE closed up 37 points at 4,481 and the Dow closed up 67 points at 8,916. In forex news, the yen and the dollar strengthened for a second day against the euro on concern the recovery of the global banking industry from the financial turmoil will be delayed, boosting demand for safer assets. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars dropped for the first time in three days against the greenback after Fed Chairman Bernanke said financial markets remained “stressed,” spurring demand for safer assets. In data releases today watch out for the MPC minutes at 9.30am that could impact GBP. At 1.30pm we have CAD retails sales and then at 3.00pm exercise caution as Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday the FTSE closed up 54 points at 4,443 and the Dow closed up 103 points at 8,848. In forex news the yen and dollar rose the most against higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars after Fed Chairman Bernanke signalled the central bank may eventually have to withdraw its expansionary policy to prevent inflation. In data releases to watch out for today today we have the CAD official cash statement at 2.00pm and at 3.00pm Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.

Morning Call by Traders University

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed up 26 points at 4,388 and the Dow closed up 32 points at 8,744. The FTSE gained resistance on 4,400 and the 200ema, and the Dow gained resistance from 8,760 and the 200ema. In forex news the yen and the dollar fell against higher-yielding currencies as stocks gained before a U.S. report that economists said will show a gauge of the economic outlook improved, weakening demand for safer assets. The dollar index fell to a six week low. In overnight news the AUD PPI was worse than expected at 0.8%. No other significant news for release today.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 15 points at 4,362 and the Dow closed up 94 at 8,711. In forex news, the yen and the dollar rose against most other major currencies on increased risk aversion, on news of the US lender, CIT group facing insolvency and the overnight Indonesia hotel bombings. In data releases today we have the CAD CPI figures out at noon and the USD building permits at 1.30pm

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 35 at 4,237 gaining resistance from the 50ema. The Dow closed up 28 points to closed just above the 50ema. In Forex news the yen traded near a one-week low against the euro before a U.S. report today that economists said will show industrial production shrank at a slower pace, adding to signs the worst of the recession is over. Rising equity markets will increase risk appetite for higher yielding currencies. In data releases due this morning watch out for the CHF retails sales y/y, the GBP claimant count change where a further increase is expected. Later on in the afternoon we have USD CPI rate and the FOMC meeting minutes.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 75 points at 4,202, closing above the key level of 4,200. A mixed day on Wall Street saw the Dow closed down 38 points and the S&P closed down just 4 points. Elsewhere in Europe the DAX closed up 146 and the CAC closed up 69 points indicating a lot of buying strength in Europe. It will be interesting to see what happens during the European open this morning. In Forex news, the Yen weakened yesterday as Asian stocks rose amid speculation Goldman Sachs will report stronger earnings today, encouraging investors to increase holdings of riskier assets. The Kiwi dollar strengthened after the Central Bank stated that the nation’s economy would recover more quickly then its trading partners. In data releases today to look out for, we have the GBP CPI figure at 9.30am. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is due at 10.00am then at 1.30pm we have the USD Retail Sales.

Morning Call by Traders University

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed down 32 at 4,127 and the Dow closed down 37 at 8,146 ending the week with heavy falls. The yen and the dollar again rose as Asian stocks declined and the relative safety of the yen and the dollar was sought. Currencies will remain sensitive to the increased risks in equities. The pound fell against the dollar after rumors that Lloyds may reveal further losses in its second half results in three weeks. In high news today we have the CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey at 3.30pm.

Morning Call by Traders University

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 19 points and formed the first green bar for 5 days. The Dow closed up 6 points and rallied into a previous support at 8,235. In forex news the dollar fell against the yen on speculation the G-8 leaders may question the dollars status as the world’s reserve currency. The Bank of England kept rates steady and did not announce any changes to the existing asset purchase program which pleased the market. Heavy news on the CAD is due at midday with the unemployment rate and then the trade balance. USD trade balance is also due at 1.30pm.